Forecasting for disrupted demand: evidence from tourism arrivals
I am presenting my latest paper in the International Symposium on Forecasting in Montreal, Canada, 2026. The paper theorises different strategies to handle a disruption using the bias-variance decomposition. The abstract is as follows: This study examines various forecasting strategies in the presence of a disruption, using Hong Kong tourism demand as a case study.…
Analytics and Business Decisions
In the last few months, I have been working on my latest research on a better connection between demand forecasts and inventory decisions. Eventually, I was invited to give a talk to undergraduate and postgraduate students at Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang, Indonesia – while I am visiting my family. I will write a post about this…
Presenting Forecast Congruence at Drexel University
Oliver Schaer, a colleague of mine at Drexel University, US, invited me to talk about my current research with Nikos Kourentzes in forecast evaluation; we call it forecast congruence. This research was inspired by my last published paper in shrinkage estimators for exponential smoothing (ETS) models. A shrinkage estimator in ETS results in a smoother…